CARINGBRIDGE GRANT MEYER

As a practical matter, it’s very difficult for people who haven’t been trained in financial analysis to analyze complex investments such as real estate partnership units, derivatives, and cash-value life insurance. You need to understand how to construct accurate cash-flow forecasts. You need to know how to calculate things like internal rates of return and net present values with the data from cash-flow forecasts. Financial analysis is nowhere near as complex as rocket science. Still, it’s not something you can do without a degree in accounting or finance, a computer, and a spreadsheet program (like Microsoft Excel or Lotus 1-2-3).

Smart people sometimes make dumb mistakes when it comes to investing. Part of the reason for this, I guess, is that most people don’t have the time to learn what they need to know to make good decisions. Another reason is that oftentimes when you make a dumb mistake, somebody else—an investment salesperson, for example—makes money. Fortunately, you can save yourself lots of money and a bunch of headaches by not making bad investment decisions.

Don’t Forget to Diversify

The average stock market return is 10 percent or so, but to earn 10 percent you need to own a broad range of stocks. In other words, you need to diversify.

Everybody who thinks about this for more than a few minutes realizes that it is true, but it’s amazing how many people don’t diversify. For example, some people hold huge chunks of their employer’s stock but little else. Or they own a handful of stocks in the same industry.

• To make money on the stock market, you need around 15 to 20 stocks in a variety of industries. (I didn’t just make up these figures; the 15 to 20 number comes from a statistical calculation that many upper-division and graduate finance textbooks explain.) With fewer than 10 to 20 stocks, your portfolio’s returns will very likely be something greater or less than the stock market average. Of course, you don’t care if your portfolio’s return is greater than the stock market average, but you do care if your portfolio’s return is less than the stock market average.
• By the way, to be fair I should tell you that some very bright people disagree with me on this business of holding 15 to 20 stocks. For example, Peter Lynch, the outrageously successful former manager of the Fidelity Magellan mutual fund, suggests that individual investors hold 4 to 6 stocks that they understand well.
• His feeling, which he shares in his books, is that by following this strategy, an individual investor can beat the stock market average. Mr. Lynch knows more about picking stocks than I ever will, but I nonetheless respectfully disagree with him for two reasons. First, I think that Peter Lynch is one of those modest geniuses who underestimate their intellectual prowess. I wonder if he underestimates the powerful analytical skills he brings to his stock picking. Second, I think that most individual investors lack the accounting knowledge to accurately make use of the quarterly and annual financial statements that publicly held companies provide in the ways that Mr. Lynch suggests.

Have Patience

• The stock market and other securities markets bounce around on a daily, weekly, and even yearly basis, but the general trend over extended periods of time has always been up. Since World War II, the worst one-year return has been –26.5 percent. The worst ten-year return in recent history was 1.2 percent. Those numbers are pretty scary, but things look much better if you look longer term. The worst 25-year return was 7.9 percent annually.
• It’s important for investors to have patience. There will be many bad years. Many times, one bad year is followed by another bad year. But over time, the good years outnumber the bad. They compensate for the bad years too. Patient investors who stay in the market in both the good and bad years almost always do better than people who try to follow every fad or buy last year’s hot stock.